In a Toronto Maple Leafs season that’s been truly unpredictable from week-to-week, the one staple of consistency has been Zach Hyman. He’s been one of the few players with whom you know exactly what you’re going to get every night, which has actually made him a difficult player to evaluate in my Report Cards following each game.
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Despite starting the season in mid-November after returning from a torn ACL he suffered back in April, Hyman is having the best season of his career. He’s already scored 21 goals in just 47 games, while also serving as Toronto’s best checking forward at even strength. If you’ve been watching the Leafs closely this year, it isn’t news that he’s been playing well.
But I want to take some time to break down how he’s doing it.
After all, this is a player most fans have been highly critical of over the years, myself included. I never liked the idea of playing him on the top line alongside Auston Matthews during the big centre’s rookie season because of Hyman’s perceived inability to finish in tight. So what’s changed this year? Why are so many of us finally hopping on the Zach Hyman Hype Train?
Impacting the game without the puck
I’ve been listening to Greg Wyshynski on the Puck Soup podcast for a few years now. He always used to plug his book, Take Your Eye Off the Puck, which is a guide for newer hockey fans on where to look when watching the game. Most of us tend to spend so much time focusing on the puck carrier, we don’t notice some of the great work being done by players in other areas of the ice.
Hyman is a textbook example of this.
When you’re watching Matthews and Mitch Marner whip the puck around the offensive zone, there’s a good chance No. 11 is filling in somewhere to help the team maintain its structure. This was more noticeable when Morgan Rielly was healthy and in the lineup, since both he and Tyson Barrie both love to jump into the play when their team has the puck in the offensive zone. Covering for your defenceman at the point is never the fun thing to do – you’d much rather get in there and score a goal – but it’s something the third forward (F3) needs to do every time if you want to prevent odd-man rushes.
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This was a topic I wrote about earlier in the year. It’s also something Keefe has talked about recently. If the Leafs are going to win with the possession-based style of hockey they’re currently employing, they need their forwards to be defensively responsible when defencemen are pinch. Hyman is the last guy you need to worry about in that regard. When he sees Matthews and Marner deep in the zone and Barrie flying down the wall, he’ll instinctively put his head down and hustle back to make sure he’s covering the open spot on the point. It’s basic and something coaches teach at every level, but it’s still nice knowing that you have a player you can trust to do it every time.
The thing I love about watching Hyman play is that he works his tail off to put his team in a better position. I probably don’t need to tell you about his effort on the forecheck when he’s the first man in (F1) since Justin Bourne already did such a great job of that in this article. But I’ll indulge anyway. Hyman is so good at applying pressure to the puck carrier and not letting them make the pass they want to, which has always been my philosophy of good defence – don’t let the other player do what they want to do.
This is especially noticeable late in a shift. When Matthews and Marner are slowly skating back to the bench, Hyman is skating like a madman to win the puck back. He has a knack for forcing the opposing defenceman into a bad spot and tying them up along the boards, which gives the next wave of players time to get set up on the forecheck. That’s just winning hockey. When you combine Hyman’s relentless motor with smart positioning in all three zones, it’s easy to see why he’s always had such a positive impact on play.
Here’s a look at how well he’s impacted the game at even strength throughout his career.
Red: More shots from that location
Blue: Fewer shots from that location
Image from HockeyViz.com
Hyman has consistently tilted the ice in his team’s favour throughout his career – at every level. That doesn’t happen by accident.
Net front presence
One thing you probably noticed in that image is just how much offence occurs around the net when Hyman is on the ice. Now, a lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s played his entire career alongside a Top 10 centre in the world, whether it’s Matthews or John Tavares. That said, there was a great breakdown on the broadcast Tuesday night showing how Hyman’s linemates have consistently done better with him than without him. If you talk to anyone who’s worked for the Marlies over the last few years, this was also the case when Hyman was in the AHL.
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The issue was that he was never able to finish around the net. When you adjust for the quality of the shots Hyman has taken throughout his career, he was actually one of the worst finishers in the NHL entering this season. Now? He’s on a 36-goal pace across 82 games. Most of that is because of the shooting percentage bender he’s been on this year, which we’ll dive into shortly, but before we tackle this from a numbers perspective, let’s break down some of the tape.
He’s clearly amuch more skilled finisher around the net than he used to be.
Zach Hyman gets it right back with his 20th of the year! 1-1 pic.twitter.com/3isK1bayPk
— Ah yes, the Leafs. (@LeafsAllDayy) February 28, 2020
In his 2016-17 rookie season, Hyman shovels that puck into the goalie’s pad and keeps whacking away at it until there’s a whistle. The 2019-20 Hyman has the patience to make a quick move to his backhand and tuck it five-hole.
This is something I’ve brought up in the Leafs Report Cards before. It’s easy to make fun of Kyle Dubas, Keefe & Co. for their emphasis on “skill development” at practice, especially when it comes after a frustrating loss to a weak opponent. Old school hockey fans don’t like hearing about team practices with loud music blaring and everyone focusing on skilled plays out of the corner. But when you look at how far Hyman’s puck skills have come over the last few years, it’s pretty clear that this is working.
Zach Hyman forces the turnover and gets the 2-on-1 with Marner but Bobrovsky makes an incredible save pic.twitter.com/HWUgtzHZgs
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) February 28, 2020
He’s put in a lot of work with skill coaches over the past few years, to the point that he’s become someone the team can trust as the net-front presence on PP2 and their 5-on-3 formation with five forwards.
Now, on to the big elephant in the room when talking about Hyman’s scoring explosion this season.
His shooting percentage
So here’s the thing…
Leon Draisaitl shot 21.6% last year. He’s at 20.7% this year, and that’s with a league leading 14 times he’s hit iron.
Here’s the full list of players with 500+ minutes and a shooting % over 20% this year:
1. Pekka Rinne – 100%
2. Zach Hyman – 21.2%
3. Leon Draisaitl – 20.7%— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) March 3, 2020
First things first: Pekka Rinne is a dead-eye sniper. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s talk about Hyman. He was shooting 10 percent across 250-plus games entering this season. Players don’t just miraculously double their career average in shooting percentage and sustain it moving forward – just ask Morgan Rielly. Any time we have a large sample of a pro athlete doing one thing and a smaller sample of them doing another, it’s a pretty safe bet that they’ll regress closer to their career average moving forward. That’s just a boring part of how math works.
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At the same time, not all shots are created equal. You can “earn” your luck by shooting from more dangerous areas on the ice. If you take more high-percentage shots from the slot, you’re obviously going to score a lot more goals than someone who’s firing long bombs from the point. This is the concept behind expected goals.
- 20% shot from the slot: 0.20 expected goals
- 3% shot from the point: 0.03 expected goals
Guess who leads the NHL in expected shooting percentage this season?
Data from EvolvingHockey.com
As a side-note, these stats refer tounblocked shots – or “fenwick” for my fellow nerds out there. This means that Hyman’s expected shooting percentage for shots on goal is closer to 18 or 19 percent, with his actual shooting percentage still sitting at 21 percent.
What I want you to take away from that image is that, even though Hyman is shooting at an uncharacteristically high percentage this season, most of it is driven by the fact that he’s generating high-quality looks from right around the crease. Just look at where his shots are coming from.
If he keeps generating shots from that area of the ice, there’s a good chance he’ll be able to stave off some of the impending regression we’re all expecting. Now, is Hyman going to finish the season shooting above 20 percent? Probably not. Then again, he does have a knack for finding the back of the net in 6-on-5 situations.
"They call him the Sidney Crosby of 6-on-5."
Auston Matthews had some lofty praise for his @MapleLeafs teammate Zach Hyman 😂 pic.twitter.com/SIeK8AVLWr
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 1, 2020
I can’t put it much better than that. When we’re talking about Hyman’s value to this Leafs team, scoring is the last thing that comes to mind. His energy on every shift is infectious. He wins battles in the tough areas of the ice. And now he’s developed into a bonafide 20-goal scorer. He’s one of those guys that superstars love to play with because, as Matthews said, he makes their lives much easier.
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When it comes to his next contract, it’s hard to assign a dollar value to what Hyman brings to the table, mainly because his value is derived from elements that aren’t captured by the box score, which makes him a tricky player for which to find comparables. This is probably more of a discussion for the offseason, but we’re reaching the point where I’m wondering if Hyman should be considered part of the Maple Leafs “core,” as opposed to a complementary piece.
A few years ago, I would have argued that Hyman was an expendable winger you could easily replace through good drafting and development. Looking at the steps he’s taken to improve his game over the past few years, however, and it’s becoming tougher to make that argument.
(Top photo: Eliot J. Schechter / NHLI via Getty Images)
Ian Tulloch is a hockey contributor for The Athletic Toronto whose main focus is bridging the gap between the eye test and analytics. He’s the host of The Leafs Geeks Podcast, appears regularly on Sportsnet 590, and has been writing at The Nation Network for the past year. Follow Ian on Twitter @IanGraph
